Firmdemandbut需求强劲,但新.PDFVIP

Colliers Quarterly Q2 2017 28 July 2017 SHENZHEN | OFFICE 深圳 | 写字楼 Firm demand but 需求强劲，但新 heavy new supply 增供应庞大 Kirsten Geng Senior Analyst | South China 耿毓坤 高级分析师 | 华南 Underpinned by firm Chinese economic growth and 受国内稳健的经济增长的支撑，以及市内大部分租户 strong global conditions in the technology sector 均来自于国际上强势上升的科技业，深圳甲级写字楼 which accounts for a high proportion of occupancy 物业市场第二季度租赁需求十分活跃，平均租金也较 in the city, Shenzhen’s Grade A office property 第一季度攀升了3 个百分点。然而，大量新增供应则 market witnessed robust demand and a 3.0% QOQ 推升平均空置率。由于未来将有持续大量新增供应入 increase in rent during Q2 2017. Nevertheless, high 市，我们预测空置率将于2019 年攀升至29%。考虑到 new supply pushed up the city’s average vacancy rate. With supply set to remain heavy, we expect 强劲的需求，我们不排除短期租金会有惊喜；而到 vacancy to rise to 29% in 2019. While given strong 2018 年和2019 年，我们预测租金会有所下调。此后 demand we do not rule out positive near-term rent 新增供应量将减缓，空置率下行，租金也会有所回 surprises, we therefore expect rents to decline over 升。 2018 and 2019. Thereafter, supply should ease, vacancy should decline and rents should pick up. Forecast at a glance 预测一览表 Demand 需求 Leasing demand is solid supported by firm 受稳健的经济支撑，租赁需求表现强劲，但 economic growth, but will probably lag 在2018 年和2019 年或将落后于即将大量入 supply over 2018 and 2019. 市的新增供应。 Supply 供应 We expect new supply to range between 我们预计2017 年，2018 年和2019 年每年 1.2 and 1.8 million sq metres (12.9-19.4 的新增供应均将在120 万平方米到180 万平 million sq ft) over each of 2017, 2018 and 方米之间（1290 万到1940 万平方英尺）。 2019. Over 202