广东省1949~2006 年粮食生产的时序变化研究 - 中国生态农业学报.pdf

2009 7 17 4 Chinese Journal of Eco-Agriculture, July 2009, 17(4): 765−769 DOI: 10. 3724/SP.J.1011.2009.00765 1949~2006 * ** 叶延琼 秦 钟 章家恩 肖红生 ( 510642) 利用 1949~2006 年广东省粮食生产的长时间序列统计数据, 分析了全省50 多年来粮食生产的变化趋 势, 并从粮食单产与播种面积、作物种植结构、复种指数、农业技术及农业投资等方面剖析了全省粮食生产 变化的主要机制。结果表明：建国以来, 随着人口增加和产业发展, 在耕地与粮食播种面积逐年减少的情况下, 广东省粮食总产量一直在波动中增长, 主要原因在于：(1)影响粮食生产的主要因子——粮食单产的提高使全省 粮食总产保持稳步增长；(2)广东省粮食作物以稻谷为主, 其种植面积的波动不大, 且单产逐年增加；(3)在耕 地面积减少的情况下, 提高复种指数可提高区域的粮食生产；(4)农业机械总动力、化肥和农药的施用等农业 技术的提高及农业基本建设投资的增加很大程度上促进了粮食生产的良好发展。 粮食生产 时序变化分析 耕地面积 粮食单产 复种指数 农业技术 农业投资 广东省 : F301.2 : A : 1671-3990(2009)04-0765-05 Time-series analysis of grain production characteristics in Guangdong Province from 1949 to 2006 YE Yan-Qiong, QIN Zhong, ZHANG Jia-En, XIAO Hong-Sheng (Key Laboratory for Ecological Agriculture of Ministry of Agriculture, Key Laboratory for Agroecology and Rural Environment of Guangdong Institutions of Higher Education, South China Agricultural University, Guangzhou 510642, China) Abstract Based on grain yield statistical data for 1949~2006 in Guangdong Province, total grain yield tendency and main mecha- nisms including per unit area grain yield, cultivation area, planting structure, multiple-crop index, agricultural technology and agri- cultural investment were analyzed. The results show that total grain yield for Guangdong Province increases fluctuatively with popu- lation growth and industrial development. Arable land area and grain-crop cultivation area have a decreasing trend since 1949. The reasons for the above trends are as follows: (1) the increase of the main affecting factor of production, per unit area grain yield, re- sults in steady growth in total