考研解题思路班概率讲义.pdfVIP

2007 (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) 1 Pólyarb cn np n R B n n P(R ) r /(r +b) P(B ) b /(r +b) 1 1 P(R ) P(R )P(R | R ) +P (B )P (R | B ) 2 1 2 1 1 2 1 r r +c b r + r /(r +b) r r r + r + + b b c b + + + b c P(R ) P (R ) P (B ) P (B ) 1 2 1 2 P (R ) P(R ) P (B ) P (B ) p r /(r +b) n 1 n 1 n Buffon a p x ϕ Ω {(x ,ϕ) : 0 ≤x ≤a / 2,0 ≤ϕ ≤π} A {(x ,ϕ) : x ≤1/ 2 sinϕ, (x ,ϕ) ∈Ω} : :1006 :010 1 π 1 1 p L A L Ω ϕdϕ aπ) 2l / aπ ( ) / ( ) ∫ sin /( 0 2 2 1 a 2 l sin ϕ 2 ϕ x 0 π PólyaPólya Pólya P (A) 0.7 P (B) P (B | A) P (B | A) P (AB ) P (A) P (AB