国际贸易形势回顾与展望面临减速风险.PDFVIP

Working Paper No. 201704 January 23, 2017 马涛：matao@ 国际贸易形势回顾与展望：面临减速风险* 摘 要： 2015 年全球贸易形势并未明显改善，2016 年上半年全球货物贸易量虽呈现温和 回升，但与4 月份WTO 预测的2.8% 的全年增速还相距甚远，以致9 月份WTO 将此下调为 1.7%。世界经济复苏依然乏力，全球贸易增长仍面临减速风险的局面越来越明显。我们判 断，2016 年全球货物贸易增速能追平2015 年的可能性较小，贸易量增长率将不会超过2% 。 在未来一个时期内，全球贸易发展的风险仍将是经济复苏的掣肘，预计2017 年全球贸易增 速将在2.5%左右。全球贸易提振需要切实的贸易增长战略和有效的经贸治理方案。G20 杭 州峰会通过的《G20 全球贸易增长战略》，为促进全球贸易和经济可持续发展指明了方向。 此次峰会提出构建创新、活力、联动和包容的世界经济，以此鼓励G20 成员积极参与国际 经贸治理，为提升全球经贸发展活力贡献力量。 关键词：国际贸易 增长预测 G20 全球贸易增长战略 经贸治理 * 马涛，中国社会科学院世界经济与政治研究所副研究员。本文选自张宇燕、孙杰主编：《世界经济黄皮书：2017 年世界经 济形势分析与预测》，社会科学文献出版社，2016 年12 月。 1 / 16 International Trade: Developments and Prospects Ma Tao Abstract: In 2015, the global trade did not improve significantly. In the first half of 2016, the increase of global merchandise trade was still moderate, and was much lower than the annual growth rate 2.8% predicted by WTO in April. Therefore, WTO reduced it to 1.7% in September. The recovery of world economy is still quite weak. The global trade growth still tends to slow down. We think that the global merchandise trade growth in 2016 may not reach the level of that in 2015, and the trade volume growth rate will be less than 2.0%. The development of global trade will be constrained by the economic downturn for a prolonged time. We estimate that the growth rate of global merchandise trade in 2017 could be around 2.5%. The improvement of global trade needs concrete growth strategy and effective trade governance measures. G20 Global Trade Growth Strategy passed by G20 Hangzhou summit will promote the sustainable development of global trade and economy. The summit prop