中国农村水利基础设施农业产出效应探究.doc

中国农村水利基础设施农业产出效应探究文章编号：1003-6636（2012）03-0086-07；中图分类号：F323；文献标识码：A ? 摘 要：利用全国范围水利水文数据，对我国农村水利基础设施农业产出效应的作用机理进行分析，得出一般性结论：农村水利基础设施通过降低成灾面积、保障农业用水、提高农业用水资源的生产配置效率三条现实路径，综合作用于农业产出。推论表明，此种效应呈现出正向效应和地区差异性特点。随后利用1988―2009年的面板数据，对全国范围与六大经济区域农村水利基础设施的农业产出效应进行实证检验。结果表明，农村水利基础设施对农业产出有着显著正效应。六大区域中，除西北地区和东北地区外，其他四大经济区域农村水利基础设施对农业产出的正向效应均高于全国水平。正向效应由大到小排序依次为：黄河流域、长江流域、南部沿海、西南地区、东北地区、西北地区。 ? 关键词：农村水利；基础设施；农业产出；作用机理 ?? Research on Agricultural Output Effect of Rural Water Infrastructure in China ? MA Shu?qin, ZHANG Hui?da ? (Zhejiang Gongshang University, Hangzhou, Zhejiang 310018, China) ? Abstract： Employing nationwide hydrological data, the paper comes to a conclusion by analyzing functioning mechanism of rural hydrological infrastructure’s agricultural output effect?rural hydrological infrastructure contributes to agricultural output by reducing disaster are, ensuring agricultural water use, improving producing and distributing efficiency of agricultural water resource. The effect is positive and regionally different. Then the paper empirically testifies agricultural output effect of rural hydrological infrastructure nation?wide and in six economic regions with panel data from 1988 to 2009. The result shows that rural hydrological infrastructure has a significant positive impact on agricultural output. Apart from the North?west and North?east regions, the positive effect of the rest four economic regions is higher than national average level. All of the six regions’ positive effect is in the below order: the Yellow River valley, the Yangtse River valley, the South Coast, the South?west, the North?east and the North?west Regions. ? Key words： rural water; infrastructure; agricultural output; function mechanism ? 一、引言? 农业是国民经济的基础，是人类的衣食之源，生存之本。农业的发展是保证国民经济持续稳定发展的重要前提。然而，农业生产是自然再生产和经济再生产相互结合的过程，面临自然和市场双重风险，是一个需要扶持的弱质产业（吴连翠，2011）。??［1］?水利基础设施对抵御农业生产中所面临的自然风险有着不可替代的作用，它决定和反映着农业产业的发展方向与运行速度。中国是农业大国，而农业又是国家各部门中的用水大户，目前全国可利用水资源