原创力文档基于改进电力弹性系数法的负荷预测 load forecasting based on improved electricity elastic coefficient method.pdfVIP
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基于改进电力弹性系数法的负荷预测 load forecasting based on improved electricity elastic coefficient method
基于改进电力弹性系数法的负荷预测
罗国东
(苏州1供电公司，江苏苏州215000)
电 摘要：采用现有电力弹性系数法进行负荷预测时，不区分全社会用电组成，笼统地用全社会经济增长去预测电
量增长。针对这一不足，提出区分全社会用电组成，将全社会用电分为生产用电和生活用电。利用相应的弹性系
数去预测生产用电中的不同产业用电需求，采用时间序列自回归模型预测生活用电。将2种预测电量相加可得到
全社会用电，提高了预测精度。
关键词：弹性系数法；用电组成；经济增长；自回归模型
中图分类号：TM715 文献标志码：A 文章编号：1673—7598(2013)06—0046—03
Load BasedOn
ForecastingImproved
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