基于熵权与系统动力学的配电网规划动态综合评价 comprehensive and dynamic evaluation of the distribution network planning based on entropy weight and system dynamics.pdfVIP

第41 卷 第1 期 电力系统保护与控制 Vol.41 No.1 2013 年1 月1 日 Power System Protection and Control Jan. 1, 2013 基于熵权与系统动力学的配电网规划动态综合评价 1 1 2 1 顾 洁 ，秦 玥 ，包海龙 ，李学坤 （1.上海交通大学电力传输与功率交换控制教育部重点实验室，上海 200240； 2.上海市电力公司，上海 200122) 摘要：配电网规划方案的总体优劣程度受多种因素影响，规划方案优选属于多属性综合评价决策问题。由于电网规划方案涉 及时间较长，在构建综合、全面地反映规划方案特点的评价指标体系基础上，如何动态地实现对规划方案评价将显著影响决 策效果。将系统动力学与熵权法有机结合，以系统动力学为基础搭建规划方案评价指标仿真模型，得到规划方案带时间标度 的技术经济指标，进一步应用熵权法根据各技术经济指标在评价周期内所含信息量的大小确定指标权重，提出了配电网规划 的动态综合评价模型。将所提出的模型应用于实际配电网规划方案评价比选，得到的结论较好地验证了其有效性。 关键词：配电网规划；系统动力学；熵权法；动态综合评价；技术经济 Comprehensive and dynamic evaluation of the distribution network planning based on entropy weight and system dynamics 1 1 2 1 GU Jie , QIN Yue , BAO Hai-long , LI Xue-kun (1. Key Laboratory of Control of Power Transmission and Transformation, Ministry of Education, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Shanghai 200240, China; 2. Shanghai Municipal Electric Power Company, Shanghai 200122, China) Abstract: The overall merits of the distribution network planning schemes are affected by many factors. Choosing the optimal plan scheme is an issue of comprehensive evaluation and multi-attribute decision-making. Since a planning scheme is time-consuming， how to dynamically evaluate the planning scheme will significantly influence the decision-making effect on the basis of building an integrated and comprehensive evaluation index system which could reflect the characterist