统计BSAFC4_PPT_ch04课件.ppt

Chapter 4 Basic Probability;Learning Objectives; Important Terms;Assessing Probability;;Events;Visualizing Events;Visualizing Events;Mutually Exclusive Events;Collectively Exhaustive Events;;Joint Probability Example;;Computing Joint and Marginal Probabilities;;General Addition Rule;General Addition Rule Example;Computing Conditional Probabilities;Conditional Probability Example;;;Statistical Independence;Multiplication Rules;Marginal Probability;Marginal Probability Example; Another Example;An New Example;Solution to (1);Solution to (2);Bayes’ Theorem;Bayes’ Theorem Example;Let S = successful well U = unsuccessful well P(S) = 0.4 , P(U) = 0.6 (prior probabilities) Define the detailed test event as D Conditional probabilities: P(D|S) = 0.6 P(D|U) = 0.2 Goal is to find P(S|D);Bayes’ Theorem Example (continued);Given the detailed test, the revised probability of a successful well has risen to 0.667 from the original estimate of 0.4;Counting Rules;Counting Rules (continued);Counting Rules (continued);Counting Rules (continued);Counting Rules (continued);Chapter Summary;Ex 1 ;What is the probability that it paid dividends? What is the probability that it increased in price and paid dividends? What is the probability that it neither paid dividends nor increased in price? Given that the stock increased in price, what is the probability that it also paid dividends?;If a stock is known not to have paid dividends, what is the probability that it increased in price?;Are the events ‘paid dividends’ and ‘increased in price’ independent? P(D)=0.46 and P(D |S)= 0.29 are different, so D and S are dependent events. Alternatively, we can arrive at the same answer by recognizing that P(S)×P(D) = 0.48 × 0.46 = 0.22 is not equal to P(S and D) = 0.14. ;;