崩塌流体化地形之判释分析模式Recognition-中华水土保持学会.PDF

崩塌流體化地形之判釋分析模式 [1*] [2] [1] 邱惠靖 陳天健 楊婉君 摘 要 台灣颱風豪雨頻繁，崩塌或土石流災害發生機率甚高 。流體化崩塌也稱之為坡面型土石流，於 土石流災害中，邊坡流體化崩塌常出現在聚落周邊之山坡，其地形與坡面崩塌之地形相近不易區分 ，居民 常居於危地而不自知，因此坡面型土石流對山區居民安全影響甚大 ，本文意旨在發展坡面型土石流之判釋 分析模式，此一成果能判釋坡面型土石流較危險的坡面地區，有效協助災害防治及預警工作。本文採用莫 拉克颱風高屏溪流域之坡面型土石流與未發生土石流之坡面資料各30 處，萃取判釋率最高之特性因子， 進行坡面型土石流區別分析。研究結果以形狀係數比、坡面平均坡度比、有效集水指標、發生區平均寬度、 流動段平均坡度、流動段深寬比、崩塌潛感面積及淺層崩塌預測模式百分比等8 項為因子時 ，可得最佳正 判率，整體正判率達90% 。再以不同組資料進行驗證時，正判率亦可達85% ，顯示此一模式為可以實用 之坡面型土石流判釋模式。 關鍵字:坡面型土石流、SHALSTAB 、判釋模式 Recognition Model of Fluidized Landslide Slope Hui-Ching Chiu[1*] Tien-Chien Chen[2] Wang-Chun Yang[1] ABSTRACT Caused by Typhoons and monsoon rains frequently, Taiwan is in a high precipitation environment. The probability of slope disaster and mudslides rises year by year. Fluidized landslides often occur and damage the heritage in mountain area causing the serious impact to residents. Fluidized landslide also called Hillslope Debris Flows (HDF) and its difficult to distinguish with terrain slope landslide from topography. This study proposals a HDF recognition model. 30 HDF and 30 non-HDF induced by Typhoon Morakot in Kaoping River are employed to develop the model. 20 factors of HDFs relating to topography, hydrology, and landslide susceptibility in the watershed were selected. The result of the discriminate analysis shows the classification rate reached 90% in which the catchment indicator, form factor ratio, q/t area percentage of prediction landslide, landslide susceptibility area, average width of effective watershed, hillslope aspect ratio of flow, average slope of flow, and hillslope average slope ratio are the most effective indexes of the model. It is expected that the HDF recognition mode will improve the slope disaster prevention and early warning work to heritages.. Key Words : Hillslope debris flow, SHALSTAB Model