项目管理Project Mangement第5章.ppt

Where We Are Now Estimating Projects Estimating The process of forecasting or approximating the time and cost of completing project deliverables. The task of balancing expectations of stakeholders and need for control while the project is implemented. Types of Estimates Top-down (macro) estimates: analogy, group consensus, or mathematical relationships Bottom-up (micro) estimates: estimates of elements of the work breakdown structure Why Estimating Time and Cost Are Important Factors Influencing the Quality of Estimates Estimating Guidelines for Times, Costs, and Resources Have people familiar with the tasks make the estimate. Use several people to make estimates. Base estimates on normal conditions, efficient methods, and a normal level of resources. Use consistent time units in estimating task times. Treat each task as independent, don’t aggregate. Don’t make allowances for contingencies. Adding a risk assessment helps avoid surprises to stakeholders. Top-Down versus Bottom-Up Estimating Top-Down Estimates Are usually are derived from someone who uses experience and/or information to determine the project duration and total cost. Are made by top managers who have little knowledge of the processes used to complete the project. Bottom-Up Approach Can serve as a check on cost elements in the WBS by rolling up the work packages and associated cost accounts to major deliverables at the work package level. Top-Down versus Bottom-Up Estimating Estimating Projects: Preferred Approach Make rough top-down estimates. Develop the WBS/OBS. Make bottom-up estimates. Develop schedules and budgets. Reconcile differences between top-down and bottom-up estimates Top-Down Approaches for Estimating Project Times and Costs Consensus methods Ratio methods Apportion method Function point methods for software and system projects Learning curves Apportion Method of Allocating Project Costs Using the Work Breakdown Structure Simplified Basic Function Point Count Process for a Prospe