Risk MGMT总结.docx

Common definition of risk:1. The notion of an indeterminate outcome is implicit in all definitions of risk: The outcome must be in question. For risk to exist, there must be at least two possible outcomes. If we know for certain that a loss will occur, there is no risk.2. At least one of the possible outcomes is undesirable. This may be a loss in the generally accepted sense in which something the individual possesses is lost, or it may be a gain smaller than the gain that was possible.Our Definition of Risk:Risk is a condition in which there is a possibility of an adverse deviation from a desired outcome that is expected or hoped for. (Probability: 0-1)The most widely held meaning of uncertainty refers to a state of mind characterized by doubt, based on a lack of knowledge about what will or will not happen in the future.The expected value of a loss in a given situation is the probability of that loss multiplied by the amount of the potential loss. If the amount at risk is $10 and the probability of loss is 0.10, the expected value of the loss is $1. If the amount at risk is $100 and the probability is 0.01, the expected value is also $1. (Degree of risk)A peril is a cause of a loss.We speak of the peril of fire, windstorm, hail, or theft. Each of these is the cause of the loss that occurs. A hazard, on the other hand, is a condition that may create or increase the chance of a loss arising from a given peril. It is possible for something to be both a peril and a hazard. For instance, sickness is a peril causing economic loss, but it is also a hazard that increases the chance of loss from the peril of premature death.Three categories of Hazards:1. Physical hazard consists of those physical properties that increase the chance of loss from the various perils. Examples of physical hazards that increase the possibility of loss from the peril of fire are the type of construction, the location of the property, and the occupancy of the building.2. Moral hazard refers to th