Chap012行为金融和技术分析.pptVIP

CHAPTER 12 Behavioral Finance and Technical Analysis 行为金融与技术分析 跳皂趣狡滤肩礁推达缸免婪烫漏橇兜茨哭捏稚预疼软叉匝懈累尽泥朝欠鞋Chap012行为金融和技术分析Chap012行为金融和技术分析 12-2 Behavioral Finance行为金融 Conventional Finance传统金融 Prices are correct; equal to intrinsic value. 资产价格正确时等于其内在价值 Resources are allocated efficiently.资源被正确的分配 Consistent with EMH与有效市场假说一致 Behavioral Finance行为金融 What if investors don’t behave rationally? 行为金融研究：如果投资者不够理性怎么办？ 华甥舀佣娱适诅撒裤乏坯形芭殿响厌肛窖东宇芍拒嘱颁膊误茶锹话仗乍璃Chap012行为金融和技术分析Chap012行为金融和技术分析 12-3 The Behavioral Critique来自行为学派的批评 Two categories of irrationalities:两类不理性 Investors do not always process information correctly.投资者没有总是正确的处理信息 Result: Incorrect probability distributions of future returns.不能正确推断未来收益的分布情况，以至于投资决策失误 Even when given a probability distribution of returns, investors may make inconsistent or suboptimal decisions.即使收益的概率分布是正常的给定的，投资者依然会有次优决策或者前后矛盾的地方 Result: They have behavioral biases.理性行为偏差 渣骨联突崖聋疟墨壳钨秉伤褒涪度诱到烃速胡廖扁桔鞋深秤火柄疥劳渝辞Chap012行为金融和技术分析Chap012行为金融和技术分析 12-4 Errors in Information Processing: Misestimating True Probabilities Forecasting Errors: Too much weight is placed on recent experiences.预测错误，太注重最近的经验 Overconfidence: Investors overestimate their abilities and the precision of their forecasts.过度自信，高估自己的能力和预测的精度 Conservatism: Investors are slow to update their beliefs and under react to new information.太保守，不能够及时更新观念，不能及时对新的信息作出反应 Sample Size Neglect and Representativeness: Investors are too quick to infer a pattern or trend from a small sample.忽视样本规模，因此样本的代表性不够；投资者往往很快从一些小概率事件中总结规律，这导致过度反应或者反应不足的情况 抿逊乱岭淀墩狰磁订纠搅夯婚甚缝蹭拒柑现诗考课送扒剩茧娟铂日轴釉抢Chap012行为金融和技术分析Chap012行为金融和技术分析 12-5 Behavioral Biases行为偏差 Biases result in less than rational decisions, even with perfect information.即使信息处理过程完美，人们也不一定就能够做出完全的理性决策 Examples: Framing: 框定偏差 How the risk is described, “risky losses” vs. “risky gains”, can affect investor decisions.怎么设定风险，是风险损失还是风险获得，也能影响决策：比如一小气鬼落水，朋友援手，说把你的手给我~结果他不理朋友；朋友换种说法，抓住我的手，他马上做出来正确决策 蜕芳梯蓉拦榨株庆头拱暮矩譬叶三桂甩凸讳刷楞鲸眩额职蛰忌烟藏哇夏浊Chap012行为金融和技术分析Chap012行为金融和技术分析 12-6 Behavioral B