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Question 貝式定理等號的左側比右側的式子還簡單, 何時會使用貝式定理? Bayesian Classification Bayesian classifiers are statistical classifiers. They can predict class membership probabilities, such as the probability that a given sample belongs to a particular class. Na?ve Bayesian classifiers assume that the effect of an attribute value on a given class is independent of values of the other attributes. (class conditional independence) Bayes Theorem P(H|X)=P(X|H)P(H) / P(X) Na?ve Bayesian Classification Each data sample is represented as X=(x1,x2,…,xn) Suppose that there are m classes, C1,C2,…Cm. Given an unknown data sample, X, the classifier will predict that X belongs to the class having the highest posterior probability. X assigned to Ci if and only if P(Ci|X)P(Cj|X) for 1≤ j ≤m, j?i. P(Ci|X)=P(X|Ci)P(Ci) / P(X) P(X) is constant for all classes P(Ci)=si / s Assume class conditional independence Example Na?ve Bayesian Classification(cont.) X=(age=“=30”,income=“medium”, student=“yes”,credit_rating=“fair”) Maximize P(X|Ci)P(Ci) for i=1,2. P(buys_computer=“yes”)=9/14=0.643 P(buys_computer=“no”)=5/14=0.357 P(age=“30”|buy_computer=“yes”)=2/9=0.222 P(age=“30”|buy_computer=“no”)=3/5=0.6 P(income=“medium”|buys_computer=“yes”)=4/9=0.444 P(income=“medium”|buys_computer=“no”)=2/5=0.4 P(student=“yes”|buys_computer=“yes”)=6/9=0.667 P(student=“yes”|buys_computer=“no”)=1/5=0.2 P(credit_rating=“fair”|buys_computer=“yes”)=6/9=0.667 P(credit_rating=“fair”|buys_computer=“no”)=2/5=0.4 P(X|buys_computer=“yes”)=0.222*0.444*0.667*0.667=0.044 P(X|buys_computer=“no”)=0.6*0.4*0.2*0.4=0.019 P(X|buys_computer=“yes”)P(buys_computer=“yes”)=0.044*0.643=0.028 P(X|buys_computer=“no”)P(buys_computer=“no”)=0.019*0.357=0.007 * * 不確定性簡介 基本機率論 貝氏推理 基於規則的專家系統的不確定管理 n資訊可能是不確定的、不一致的、不完整的，或上述三種情況都有。換句話說，這種資訊經常並不適於用來解決一個問題 n不確定性可被定義為：缺乏使我們可以得到完美可信結論的確切知識。典型的邏輯僅允許確切的推理。它假設始終存在完善的知識，始終應用排中律： IF A is true IF A is false THEN A is not false THEN A is not true 不確定性簡介 脆弱的’表示’(imply)。領域專家和知識工程師承擔著棘手