基于手机定位数据的居民出行需求特征分析1-城..docx

基于手机定位数据的居民出行需求特征分析Cellular Phone Location Data Based Comprehensive Travel Demand Analysis扈中伟，邓小勇，郭继孚，温慧敏（北京交通发展研究中心，北京，100073）HU Zhong-wei, DENG Xiao-yong, GUO Ji-fu, WEN Hui-min (Beijing Transportation Research Center, Beijing 100073, China)摘要：首先介绍了我国手机定位数据的采集原理和数据特性，在此基础上研究建立了居民出行特征提取与分析的技术路线，包括数据层、模型层、系统处理层和应用层等，解决了信号漂移、数据扩样等关键环节的技术难点。以北京市为例，利用分析结果开展了居民出行OD分布、人口分布云图演变、出行特征参数、通勤出行专题等综合分析。研究发现，手机定位数据的最理想用途在于展现用户时空分布的“全景图”，能够提供丰富的分析结果及展现手段。该技术方法具备低成本、覆盖范围广、数据精度高、时效性强等显著优势，是在传统交通规划调查方法上取得的突破，能够为新时期交通规划与管理工作提供先进可靠的技术工具，具备重要的推广价值和广阔的应用前景。Abstract: In this paper, cellular phone location data collection and characteristics in China was introduced firstly. Then, the roadmap for comprehensive travel demand analysis was put forward, which was divided into data level, model level, data processing level and application level. This research solved the key technical problems such as cellular phone signal drift and data sampling expansion. With the cellular phone data collected in Beijing, comprehensive travel demand analysis has been developed, including travel OD distribution, population distribution evolvement maps, travel characteristics of commuter travel. It is indicated that the ideal use of cellular phone location data is to give the phone user spatial-temporal distribution panorama. The approach put forward in this paper has the advantages of low cost, high coverage, relatively accuracy and fine timeliness. Travel demand analysis based on cellular phone data provides a tool for future transport planning and management, which is worth popularizing in other cities.关键词：交通规划调查；手机定位数据；出行需求；OD分布；智能交通系统Keywords:transport planning survey;cellular phone location data;travel demand; OD distribution; Intelligent Transport Systems 0 引言当前，交通管理模式已由供给型向需求管理型转变。新时期城市交通规划与管理工作，对精确把握城市居民出行需求特征与变化规律，保证数据的现势性和覆盖范围提出了更高的要求。传统上，为掌握交通出行需求特征，需要开展交通规划调查，通过调查组织、资料准备、方案设计、人员培训、调查实施、数据处理与分析等一系列步骤，采用家访、CATI（Computer Aided Telephone Interviews）等方式完成。自上世纪70年代末，上海、天津、北京等城市相继开始开展交通规划调查，这一方法具有应用广泛、技术成熟