人口增长与环境问题分析.ppt

Human Population Growth and the Environment Human Population - An Explosive Growth Human Needs - Limited Resources Our Natural Environment Under Attack Roles of Technology and Engineering An Uncertain Future Humans are Recent Arrivals Earth - 5 Billion Years Multi-cell Biota - 600 Million Years Human Beings ~ 2 Million Years Human Population Growth into Billions - Last 200 years A Closer Look (1) 12,000 years 200 Million by 1 A.D. 2,000 Years 1 Billion in 1800 A.D. What’s Behind Population Growth Three Factors Fertility Infant Mortality Longevity Animal Domestication and Agriculture Provided for a few to feed many Industrial Revolution Growth of Cities and Infrastructure Water Energy Transportation Increased Productivity Nutrition Sanitation Medicine Fertility Trends Population predictions are very sensitive to future fertility assumptions At 1990 fertility rates (constant by region) population would grow to 110 billion in 2100, over 700 billion in 2150 (3) Has been dropping since 1800 in developed nations - now at Zero Growth (4) Is on its way down in much of the developing world (4) Population Predictions (4) Most predictions: 9-12B by 2050 10-15B by 2100 UN (Low) requires global fertility at less than zero growth in 15 years Large uncertainties Population May Overshoot Resource Consumption (6) High consumption Getting worse Rate increase faster than population growth Resource Limits - Land (7) Deforesting to acquire more arable land Would run out in next century at current yields Probably need to double yields Resource Limits - Water (8) In 1950 people used half of accessible water Are now dependent on dams Pollution loses 33% of potential water Getting close to limits Energy Consumption (9) Energy growth very high last fifty years Mostly hydrocarbon fuels Nonrenewable resource consumption and climate change issues Fossil Fuel Reserves (9) Technology Evolves (10) Economics and Resources (11) Impact = P*A*T Po