基于奇异谱与混沌支持向量机模型预测三峡水库月径流.pdfVIP

Journal of Water Resources Research 水资源研究, 2012, 1, 71-77 doi:10.4236/jwrr.2012.13011 Published Online June 2012 (/journal/jwrr.html) Monthly Runoff Prediction Based on Singular Spectrum * Analysis and Chaotic Support Vector Machines 1 1 2 2 Yun Wang , Shenglian Guo , Guangjing Cao , Zhengfeng Bao 1State Key Laboratory of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering Science, Wuhan University, Wuhan 2China Three Gorges Project Corporation, Yichang Email: wangyun.bdydh@ Received: Apr. 24th th th , 2012; revised: May 16 , 2012; accepted: May 27 , 2012 Abstract: The runoff time series is often assumed as a combination of quasi-periodic signals contaminated by noises to some extent. The singular spectrum analysis method is used to preprocess inflow data of the Three Gorges Reservoir from 1882 to 2010 and a new reconstructed sequence is obtained. The seasonal autoregressive model, wavelet neural network model and chaotic support vector machines are applied to simulate and predict the original and reconstructed inflow data series. The results show that the singular spectrum analysis method for data preprocessing not only can concentrate the main information and reduce errors, but also significantly improve the accuracy of the monthly runoff prediction. The chaotic support vec- tor machines coupled with singular spectrum analysis performs best among these models, which determina- tion