clarifying the language of chance using basic conditional probability reasoning the monty hall problem澄清的机会的语言使用基本条件概率推理monty hall的问题.pdfVIP

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clarifying the language of chance using basic conditional probability reasoning the monty hall problem澄清的机会的语言使用基本条件概率推理monty hall的问题.pdf

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clarifying the language of chance using basic conditional probability reasoning the monty hall problem澄清的机会的语言使用基本条件概率推理monty hall的问题

Open Journal of Discrete Mathematics, 2012, 2, 164-168 /10.4236/ojdm.2012.24033 Published Online October 2012 (http://www.SciRP.org/journal/ojdm) Clarifying the Language of Chance Using Basic Conditional Probability Reasoning: The Monty Hall Problem Pejmon Sadri Department of Liberal Arts, Menlo College, Atherton, USA Email: psadri@ Received July 21, 2012; revised August 2, 2012; accepted August 14, 2012 ABSTRACT Clarity and preciseness in the use of language is crucial when communicating mathematical and probabilistic ideas. Lack of these can make even the simplest problem difficult to understand and solve. One such problem is the Monty Hall problem. In the past, a controversy was stirred among professional mathematicians when trying to reach a consen- sus on a solution to the problem. The problem still creates confusion among some of those who are asked to solve it for the first time. We purport to demonstrate the use of more precise language of basic conditional probability could have prevented the controversy. Keywords: Conditional Probability; The Monty Hall Problem 1. Introduction by asking “But what about the agreement in what we call ‘agreement’?” Some loss in the meaning of expressions is expected when information is translated from one language to another. 2. Precise and Imprecise Use of Language But, a loss in meaning isn’t the worst byproduct of translating information. Rather, it’s the misconceptions