dynamical models for computer viruses propagation对计算机病毒传播的动力学模型.pdfVIP

Hindawi Publishing Corporation Mathematical Problems in Engineering Volume 2008, Article ID 940526, 11 pages doi:10.1155/2008/940526 Research Article Dynamical Models for Computer Viruses Propagation ´ Jose R. C. Piqueira and Felipe Barbosa Cesar Escola Politecnica da Universidade de Sao Paulo, Avenida Prof. Luciano Gualberto, travessa 3 - 158, ´ ˜ 05508-900 Sao Paulo, SP, Brazil ˜ Correspondence should be addressed to Jose R. C. Piqueira, piqueira@lac.usp.br ´ Received 28 March 2008; Revised 9 May 2008; Accepted 30 May 2008 Recommended by Jose Balthazar Nowadays, digital computer systems and networks are the main engineering tools, being used in planning, design, operation, and control of all sizes of building, transportation, machinery, business, and life maintaining devices. Consequently, computer viruses became one of the most important sources of uncertainty, contributing to decrease the reliability of vital activities. A lot of antivirus programs have been developed, but they are limited to detecting and removing infections, based on previous knowledge of the virus code. In spite of having good adaptation capability, these programs work just as vaccines against diseases and are not able to prevent new infections based on the network state. Here, a trial on modeling computer viruses propagation dynamics relates it to other notable events occurring in the network permitting to establish preventive policies in the network management. Data from three different viruses are collected in the Internet and two different identification techniques, autoregressive and Fourier analyses, are applied showing that it is possible to forecast th