CRM中多阶段信号博弈模型的建立与分析.pdfVIP

北京理工大学学报 第 28 卷第2 期 Vol. 28 No.2 2008 年2 月 Transactions of Beijing Institute of Technology Feb. 2008 CRM 中多阶段信号博弈模型的建立与分析 杨宏楞， 尹秋菊， 颜志军 (北京理工大学管理与经济学挠，北京 100081) 摘要z 针对企业-客户向自信息不对称引起的道德风险和逆向选择问题，为企业和客户前交易过程提供决策支 持.将信号博弈应用到客户关系管理中，分别建立了企业，客户单向多阶段信号博弈展开模型和企业-客户双向多 阶段信号博弈数学模型，并利用目标分析法和逆推归纳法求出了这两个模型的分离均衡解.得到了交易过程中企 业客户双方的均衡信号选择.研究结果表明，不离类型的企业和客户，其均衡信号行为不同，从而可以根据其行为 结果判断其真实类型. 关键词z 客户关系管理z 多阶段信号簿弈3 分离均衡;虫叶斯均衡 中臣分类号: 0225 文献标识码:A 文章编号: 1001-0645(2008)02-0185-04 A Study of Multi-Stage Signaling Game Modeling in Customer Relation Management( CRM) YANG Hong-qiao , YIN Qiu-ju , YAN Zhi-jun (Sch∞.{ of Management and E∞nomics， Beijing Institute of Technology , Beíjíng 100081 , China) Abstract: To resolvεthe problem of moral hazard and adverse selection that may arise from asymmetric information between a business and customer , and to offer decision-support for business and customers, signaling game theory is applied into the customer relation management. An extended model of single-direction multi-stage signaling game between business ancl customer , and a mathematical model of bi-direction multi-stage signalíng game between businesses and customers were 臼tablished. Furthermore , methods of goal analysis and backwards induction were used to obt在in the separating equilibriums of the above two models. The equilibrium signal selections of business and customer during the transaction are obtained. Reseach results showed business and customer of different types wiH take different equilibrium signals, which offers a basis to judge their true types. Key words: cus