bayesian prediction of the overhaul effect on a repairable system with bounded failure intensity贝叶斯预测改革效应的强度与有界可修系统失败.pdfVIP

Hindawi Publishing Corporation International Journal of Quality, Statistics, and Reliability Volume 2011, Article ID 681210, 8 pages doi:10.1155/2011/681210 Research Article Bayesian Prediction of the Overhaul Effect on a Repairable System with Bounded Failure Intensity Preeti Wanti Srivastava and Nidhi Jain Department of Operational Research, University of Delhi, Delhi 7, India Correspondence should be addressed to Preeti Wanti Srivastava, pw srivastava@yahoo.co.in Received 13 December 2010; Revised 20 June 2011; Accepted 21 June 2011 Academic Editor: Ratna Babu Chinnam Copyright © 2011 P. W. Srivastava and N. Jain. This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. This paper deals with the Bayes prediction of the future failures of a deteriorating repairable mechanical system subject to minimal repairs and periodic overhauls. To model the effect of overhauls on the reliability of the system a proportional age reduction model is assumed and the 2-parameter Engelhardt-Bain process (2-EBP) is used to model the failure process between two successive overhauls. 2-EBP has an advantage over Power Law Process (PLP) models. It is found that the failure intensity of deteriorating repairable systems attains a finite bound when repeated minimal repair actions are combined with some overhauls. If such a data is analyzed through models with unbounded increasing failure intensity, such as the PLP, then pessimistic estimates of the system reliability will arise and incorrect preventive maintenance policy may be defined. On the basis of the observed data and of a number of suitable prior densities reflecting varied degrees of