research on financial distress prediction with adaptive genetic fuzzy neural networks on listed corporations of china研究财务困境预测自适应遗传模糊神经网络在中国的上市公司.pdf

Int. J. Communications, Network and System Sciences, 2009, 5, 385-391 doi:10.4236/ijcns.2009.25043 Published Online August 2009 (http://www.SciRP.org/journal/ijcns/). Research on Financial Distress Prediction with Adaptive Genetic Fuzzy Neural Networks on Listed Corporations of China Zhibin XIONG School of Mathematical Sciences, South China Normal University, Guangzhou, China Email : zxiong3@ Received March 27, 2009; revised May 10, 2009; accepted June 28, 2009 ABSTRACT To design a multi-population adaptive genetic BP algorithm, crossover probability and mutation probability are self-adjusted according to the standard deviation of population fitness in this paper. Then a hybrid model combining Fuzzy Neural Network and multi-population adaptive genetic BP algorithm—Adaptive Genetic Fuzzy Neural Network (AGFNN) is proposed to overcome Neural Network’s drawbacks. Furthermore, the new model has been applied to financial distress prediction and the effectiveness of the proposed model is performed on the data collected from a set of Chinese listed corporations using cross validation approach. A comparative result indicates that the performance of AGFNN model is much better than the ones of other neural network models. Keywords: Multi-Population Adaptive Genetic BP Algorithm, Fuzzy Neural Network, Cross Validation, Financial Distress 1. Introduction also searches optima globally [6-9]. Therefore, it is pos- sible that combining neural networks with fuzzy logic and genetic algorithm could merge their advantages and In