multinomialprobit模型的原理与应用the-bowenpublishing.pdfVIP

June 2013, Volume 3, Issue 3, PP.47-55 Scientific Journal of Mathematics Research Multinomial Probit 模型的原理与应用 孔 军 西北大学经济管理学院，陕西省西安市长安区郭杜教育科技产业园区学府大道1 号，710127 摘 要：Multinomial Probit 模型在经济学研究领域应用广泛，特别是劳动经济学就业方面。本文首先阐述了该模型的原理， 然后将此模型应用到大学毕业生毕业选择问题上，研究影响毕业生就业、失业和读研究生的因素。本文发现研究型大学和普 通大学毕业生比大专毕业生找工作容易，研究型大学毕业生读研究生的可能性更大；工程类和商学类毕业生好找工作；而农 学毕业生进入研究生院学习的可能性最大；女生比男生找工作容易并且读研究生的概率更大。 关键词：模型；就业；失业；研究生教育；影响因素 The Principle and Application of A multinomial Probit Model Jun Kong School of Economics and Management, Northwest University No.1 Xuefu Avenue, education and technology development zone, Chang’an District, Xi’an, Shaanxi Province, China, 710127 j unkong555@ Abstract: The Multinomial Probit Model is extensively applied in many fields of economics particularly in aspect of employment. This paper presents the principle of the model at first. Then it analyzes graduates’ career decision when they are graduated, and study factors affecting graduates’ employment, unemployment, and postgraduate education by this model. This study indicates that the graduates find jobs faster and are more likely to study in graduate school if they come from colleges with higher reputation. In addition, study shows graduates with engineering and business degrees find jobs more easily. Agricultural graduates have higher probability to go to graduate school. Finally, female graduates find jobs more easily than male graduates, and they are more likely to go to graduate school. Keywords: Model; Employment; Unemployment; Graduate Education: Factors 引言 Probit 模型属于离散选择模型，用于是或非的可能性研究，近年来在经济学的各个领域广泛使用。离散选择 模型试图解释一个离散选择或结果，至少有两种离散变量类型要求不同的统计和计量经济学模型与