(财政学罗森第九版英文课件)Chap002Tools of Positive Analysis.ppt

2-* 2-* 1-* 1-* ? 2010 The McGraw-Hill Companies, All Rights Reserved McGraw-Hill/Irwin CHAPTER 2 Tools of Positive Analysis Copyright ? 2010 by the McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. McGraw-Hill/Irwin The Role of Theory Economic models Virtue of simplicity Judging a model Limitations of models Empirical analysis Causation vs. Correlation Statistical analysis Correlation Control group Treatment group Conditions required for government action X to cause societal effect Y X must precede Y X and Y must be correlated Other explanations for any observed correlation must be eliminated Experimental Studies Biased estimates Counterfactual Experimental (or randomized) study Conducting an Experimental Study Random assignment to control and treatment groups Pitfalls of Experimental Studies Ethical issues Technical problems Response bias Impact of limited duration of experiment Generalization of results to other populations, settings, and related treatments Black box aspect of experiments Observational Studies Observational study – empirical study relying on observed data not obtained from experimental study Sources of observational data Surveys Administrative records Governmental data Econometrics Regression analysis Conducting an Observational Study L = α0 + α1wn + α2X1 + … + αnXn + ε Dependent variable Independent variables Parameters Stochastic error term Regression analysis Regression line Standard error wn L α0 Interceptis α0 Slopeis α1 Types of Data Cross-sectional data Time-series data Panel data Pitfalls of Observational Studies Data collected in non-experimental setting Specification issues Quasi-Experimental Studies Quasi-experimental study (= natural experiment) – observational study relying on circumstances outside researcher’s control to mimic random assignment Conducting a Quasi-Experimental Study Difference-in-Difference quasi-experiments Instrumental Variables quasi-experiments Regression-Discontinuity quasi-experiments Pitfalls of Quasi-Exper