系统响应气候变化脆弱性定量评价国内研究综述.pdfVIP

33 9 Vol33 N o9 2008 9 ENV IRONMENTAL SCIENCE AND MANAGEMENT Sep. 2008 : 1673- 1212(2008) 09- 0030- 06 潘护林 (, 730070) : 定量评价气候变化脆弱性是人类采取适应性措施应对全球气候变化, 以减少其不 影响的关键和基 础在对气候变化脆弱性有关概念进行讨论, 及对国际国内系统响应气候变化脆弱性评价研究回顾的基础 上, 对中国近十几来有关气候变化脆弱性定量评价研究的成果从三 个方面进行了较为系统的总结: 气候情景的 模拟预测系统变化过程的模拟脆弱性指标的选取及脆弱性层次的划分最后, 从评价对象技术手段指标 体系时间尺度等方面探讨了该领域研究的不足及发展方向 : 气候变化; 系统脆弱性; 定量评价; 研究综述 : X 16 : A An verview of DomesticResearches onAssessment ofVulnerability of Systems to Clmi ateChange PanHulin ( College ofGeography and Environment Science, North-WestNorm alUniversity, Lanzhou 730070, China) Abstract: QuantitativeAssessm entof the vulnerability ofnatural/socio- econom ic systems to the clmi ate change is theprem ise and basis forhuman being to take adaptivemeasures to dealw ith theglobal clmi ate change and elmi inate its negative mi pacts. Based on the discussion about conceptions relative to vulnerability of systems to clmi ate change, and the reviews to the dom estic relative researches on the assessments of the vulnerability of natural/socio- econom ic system s to clmi ate changes, this papergen eralizes the domestic research fruits of quantitative assessments of vulnerability of natural/socio- econom ic system s to clmi ate changes from three aspects: modeling and predicting the scenarios of clmi ate change, modeling the change process of systems and choice of vulnerability indices and splitting ofvulnerability levels. Lastly, points out the deficiencies of the research and its devel opingways from four aspects: objects of assessm ent technicalmeans, evaluation index system and tmi e- scale. K y words: clmi ate change; vulnerability of system; quantitative assessme