climate change, precipitation and impacts on an estuarine refuge from disease气候变化、降水和对河口躲避疾病的影响.pdfVIP

Climate Change, Precipitation and Impacts on an Estuarine Refuge from Disease 1 1 2 3 3 Jeffrey Levinton *, Michael Doall , David Ralston , Adam Starke , Bassem Allam 1 Department of Ecology and Evolution, Stony Brook University, Stony Brook, New York, United States of America, 2 Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, Massachusetts, United States of America, 3 School of Marine and Atmospheric Sciences, Stony Brook University, Stony Brook, New York, United States of America Abstract Background: Oysters play important roles in estuarine ecosystems but have suffered recently due to overfishing, pollution, and habitat loss. A tradeoff between growth rate and disease prevalence as a function of salinity makes the estuarine salinity transition of special concern for oyster survival and restoration. Estuarine salinity varies with discharge, so increases or decreases in precipitation with climate change may shift regions of low salinity and disease refuge away from optimal oyster bottom habitat, negatively impacting reproduction and survival. Temperature is an additional factor for oyster survival, and recent temperature increases have increased vulnerability to disease in higher salinity regions. Methodology/Principal Findings: We examined growth, reproduction, and survival of oysters in the New York Harbor- Hudson River region, focusing on a low-salinity refuge in the estuary. Observations were during two years when rainfall was above average and comparable to projected future increases in precipitation in the region and a past period of about 15 years with high precipitation. We found a clear tradeoff between oyster growth and vulnerability to disease. Oysters survived well when exposed t