demographic amplification of climate change experienced by the contiguous united states population during the 20th century气候变化的人口放大经历连续的美国人口在20世纪.pdfVIP

Demographic Amplification of Climate Change Experienced by the Contiguous United States Population during the 20th Century 1 2 3 1 Jason Samson *, Dominique Berteaux , Brian J. McGill , Murray M. Humphries ´ ´ ´ ` 1 Department of Natural Resource Sciences, Macdonald Campus, McGill University, Ste-Anne-de-Bellevue, Quebec, Canada, 2 Biology Department, Universite du Quebec a ´ Rimouski, Rimouski, Quebec, Canada, 3 School of Biology and Ecology Sustainability Solutions Initiative, University of Maine, Orono, Maine, United States of America Abstract Better understanding of the changing relationship between human populations and climate is a global research priority. The 20th century in the contiguous United States offers a particularly well-documented example of human demographic expansion during a period of radical socioeconomic and environmental change. One would expect that as human society has been transformed by technology, we would become increasingly decoupled from climate and more dependent on social infrastructure. Here we use spatially-explicit models to evaluate climatic, socio-economic and biophysical correlates of demographic change in the contiguous United States between 1900 and 2000. Climate-correlated variation in population growth has caused the U.S. population to shift its realized climate niche from cool, seasonal climates to warm, aseasonal climates. As a result, the average annual temperature experienced by U.S. citizens between 1920 and 2000 has increased by more than 1.5uC and the temperature seasonality has decreased by 1.1uC during a century when climate change