density-dependent mortality of the human host in onchocerciasis relationships between microfilarial load and excess mortality密度制约的死亡率的人类宿主盘尾丝虫病microfilarial加载和死亡率之间的关系.pdfVIP

Density-Dependent Mortality of the Human Host in Onchocerciasis: Relationships between Microfilarial Load and Excess Mortality Martin Walker1., Mark P. Little2.¤a, Karen S. Wagner3, Edoh W. Soumbey-Alley4, Boakye A. Boatin5¤b, ´ ´ ˜ 1* Marıa-Gloria Basanez 1 Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Faculty of Medicine, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom, 2 Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Faculty of Medicine, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom, 3 Travel and Migrant Health Section, Health Protection Agency Centre for Infections, London, United Kingdom, 4 Health Information Systems, World Health Organization Regional Office for Africa, Brazzaville, Congo, 5 Special Programme for Research and Training in Tropical Diseases, World Health Organization, Geneva, Switzerland Abstract Background: The parasite Onchocerca volvulus has, until recently, been regarded as the cause of a chronic yet non-fatal condition. Recent analyses, however, have indicated that in addition to blindness, the parasite can also be directly associated with human mortality. Such analyses also suggested that the relationship between microfilarial load and excess mortality might be non-linear. Determining the functional form of such relationship would contribute to quantify the population impact of mass microfilaricidal treatment. Methodology/Principal Findings: Data from the Onchocerciasis Control Programme in West Africa (OCP) collected from 1974 through 2001 were used to determine functional relationships between microfilarial load and excess mortality of the human host. The goodness-of-fit of three candidate