nonstationary influence of el ni？o on the synchronous dengue epidemics in thailand不稳定的影响,el倪 o在泰国在登革热流行同步.pdfVIP

Open access, freely available online PLoS MEDICINE ˜ Nonstationary Influence of El Nino on the Synchronous Dengue Epidemics in Thailand 1,2* 3 4 4 Bernard Cazelles , Mario Chavez , Anthony J. McMichael , Simon Hales ´ ´ ˆ ` 1 CNRS UMR 7625, Ecole Normale Superieure, Paris, France, 2 IRD UR GEODES, Bondy, France, 3 LENA-CNRS UPR 640, CHU Pitie-Salpetriere, Paris, France, 4 National Centre for Epidemiology and Population Health, Australian National University, Canberra, Australian Capital Territory, Australia Competing Interests: The authors A B S T R A C T have declared that no competing interests exist. Background Author Contributions: BC and SH designed the study. MC and BC Several factors, including environmental and climatic factors, influence the transmission of analyzed the data. BC, AJM, and SH contributed to the writing of vector-borne diseases. Nevertheless, the identification and relative importance of climatic the paper. factors for vector-borne diseases remain controversial. Dengue is the world’s most important Academic Editor: Mercedes Pasc- viral vector-borne disease, and the controversy about climatic effects also applies in this case. ual, University of Michigan, United Here we address the role of climate variability in shaping the interannual pattern of dengue States of America epidemics. Citation: Ca