a probabilistic analysis of the switchgrass ethanol cycle柳枝稷的概率分析乙醇循环.pdfVIP

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a probabilistic analysis of the switchgrass ethanol cycle柳枝稷的概率分析乙醇循环.pdf

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a probabilistic analysis of the switchgrass ethanol cycle柳枝稷的概率分析乙醇循环

Sustainability 2010, 2, 3158-3194; doi:10.3390/su2092734 OPEN ACCESS sustainability ISSN 2071-1050 /journal/sustainability Article A Probabilistic Analysis of the Switchgrass Ethanol Cycle Tadeusz W. Patzek Department of Petroleum and Geosystems Engineering, The University of Texas at Austin, TX 78712, USA; E-Mail: patzek@; Tel.: +512 232 8368 Received: 24 August 2010; in revised form: 26 September 2010 / Accepted: 29 September 2010 / Published: 30 September 2010 Abstract: The switchgrass-driven process for producing ethanol has received much popular attention. However, a realistic analysis of this process indicates three serious limitations: (a) If switchgrass planted on 140 million hectares (the entire area of active U.S. cropland) were used as feedstock and energy source for ethanol production, the net ethanol yield would replace on average about 20% of today’s gasoline consumption in the U.S. (b) Because nonrenewable resources are required to produce ethanol from switchgrass, the incremental gas emissions would be on average 55 million tons of equivalent carbon dioxide per year to replace just 10% of U.S. automotive gasoline. (c) In terms of delivering electrical or mechanical power, ethanol from 1 hectare (10,000 m ) of switchgrass is equivalent, on average, to 30 m of low-efﬁciency photovoltaic cells. This analysis suggests that investing toward more efﬁcient and durable solar cells, and batterie