大停电后的机组投运风险评估.PDF

第 33 卷 第 31 期 中 国 电 机 工 程 学 报 Vol.33 No.31 Nov.5, 2013 106 2013 年 11 月 5 日 Proceedings of the CSEE ©2013 Chin.Soc.for Elec.Eng. 0258-8013 (2013) 31-0106-08 TM 71 A 470 40 文章编号： 中图分类号： 文献标志码： 学科分类号： ⋅ 大停电后的机组投运风险评估 刘艳，张凡，顾雪平 (新能源电力系统国家重点实验室(华北电力大学) ，河北省 保定市 071003) Risk Assessment for Restoring Units Following Large-scale Blackout LIU Yan, ZHANG Fan, GU Xueping (State Key Laboratory of Alternate Electrical Power System with Renewable Energy Sources (North China Electric Power University), Baoding 071003, Hebei Province, China) ABSTRACT: It is important for reducing economic loss to 果表明，该方法对不同重构方案下机组投运风险的比较集中 restore the operation of fossil fuel generators in a safe and orderly 体现了重构恢复效果及其实现的可能性，可为调度人员选择 sequence after a blackout. Due to differences of units’ starting 恢复方案提供更加全面的决策辅助信息。 sequence and operational reliability, some uncertain situations 关键词：大停电；机组投运；风险评估；五状态机组模型； may arise at the stage of network reconfiguration. In response to this problem, this paper first proposed the concept of unit’s 灵敏度分析 restoring risk after blackout. Based on the concept, the five-state 0 引言 model of hot-reserve unit was introduced to calculate the failure possibility of units in operation. Further, reconfiguration steps 近年来，国内外发生的多起大面积停电事故及 were classified according to the lead time of the unit being ready 相关恢复实践充分表明：作为停电防御系统的重要 to start and the feasible power flow, which includes the real power 组成，恢复控制对于减小停电损失意义重大[1-5] 。依 output of units in operation corres