供应链管理中的牛鞭效应（Bullwhip effect in supply chain management）.docVIP

供应链管理中的牛鞭效应（Bullwhip effect in supply chain management） The bullwhip effect can lead to an overreaction of the firm to market changes. The more the supply chain is at the back end, the greater the demand changes, and the slower the firm responds to the market. The effective operation of supply chain is restricted by many factors, such as organization structure, information channel, geographical distribution, industry characteristics, etc.. But the most profound influence factor is bullwhip effect. What is the bullwhip effect? In a supply chain, a little change in the consumer market demand will be enlarged to a level of manufacturers, suppliers and sub suppliers head. For example, the computer market demand forecast a slight increase of 2%, enlarged to DELL (manufacturer) may become 5%, transferred to Intel (first class supplier), may be 10%, and to the production for the Intel processor equipment manufacturers (secondary suppliers) may become 20%. In simple terms, when the operator received consumer orders issued, will send the goods according to the orders received from downstream distributors, and as a basis to predict the future changes in demand for reference sales records, combined with the period inventory issued orders to suppliers. The delivery of orders and the delivery of goods require two business cycles, and each operator needs four business cycles from the order to the order. When consumer demand changes, orders and inventories of retailers, wholesalers and distributors fluctuate spontaneously, and the more they are in the back of the supply chain, the more positive the magnitude of demand change is. In shape, its like a cowboy waving bullwhip, whip a flick of whiplash will greatly shake, to draw a beautiful arc, which is called supply chain management bullwhip effect. The following figure shows the changing trend of the overall inventory of the North American semiconductor industry from 1991 to 2001. This is a two level supply chain: chip manufacturin