the 2011 brisbane floods causes, impacts and implications2011年布里斯班洪水的原因,影响和意义.pdfVIP

Water 2011, 3, 1149-1173; doi:10.3390/w3041149 OPEN ACCESS water ISSN 2073-4441 /journal/water Article The 2011 Brisbane Floods: Causes, Impacts and Implications Robin C. van den Honert * and John McAneney Risk Frontiers, Macquarie University, NSW 2109, Australia; E-Mail: john.mcaneney@.au * Author to whom correspondence should be addressed; E-Mail: rob.vandenhonert@.au; Tel.: +61-2-9850-4421; Fax: +61-2-9850-9394. Received: 1 November 2011; in revised form: 29 November 2011 / Accepted: 2 December 2011 / Published: 9 December 2011 Abstract: On 13th January 2011 major flooding occurred throughout most of the Brisbane River catchment, most severely in Toowoomba and the Lockyer Creek catchment (where 23 people drowned), the Bremer River catchment and in Brisbane, the state capital of Queensland. Some 56,200 claims have been received by insurers with payouts totalling $2.55 billion. This paper backgrounds weather and climatic factors implicated in the flooding and the historical flood experience of Brisbane. We examine the time history of water releases from the Wivenhoe dam, which have been accused of aggravating damage downstream. The dam was built in response to even worse flooding in 1974 and now serves as Brisbane’s main water supply. In our analysis, the dam operators made sub-optimal decisions by neglecting forecasts of further rainfall and assuming a ‘no rainf