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Genet. Sel. Evol. 37 (2005) 57–81 57 c INRA, EDP Sciences, 2004 DOI: 10.1051/gse:2004036 Original article The advantage of factorial mating under selection is uncovered by deterministically predicted rates of inbreeding a,b,c ∗ b Anders Christian S , Peer B , John A. Wa a Roslin Institute (Edinburgh), Roslin, Midlothian, EH25 9PS, UK b Department of Animal Breeding and Genetics, Danish Institute of Agricultural Science, PO Box 50, 8830 Tjele, Denmark c Department of Large Animal Sciences, Royal Veterinary and Agricultural University, Ridebanevej 12, 1870 Frederiksberg C, Denmark (Received 14 October 2003; accepted 18 August 2004) Abstract – Rates of inbreeding (∆F) in selected populations were predicted using the framework of long-term genetic contributions and validated against stochastic simulations. Deterministic predictions decomposed ∆F into four components due to: finite population size, directional selection, covariance of genetic contribution of mates, and deviation of variance of family size from that expected from a Poisson distribution. Factorial (FM) and hierarchi- cal (HM) mating systems were compared under mass and sib-index selection. Prediction errors were in most cases for ∆F less than 10% and for rate of gain less than 5%. ∆F was higher with index than mass selection. ∆F was lower with FM than HM in all cases except random selec- tion. FM reduced the variance of the average breeding value of the mates of an individual. This reduced the impact of the covariance of contributions