海平面上升引起的交通网络脆弱性分析VulnerabilityAnalysisof.PDF

The 4th IACP Annual Conference 海平面上升引起的交通网络脆弱性分析 Vulnerability Analysis of Transportation Networks as a Result of Sea Level Rise 路庆昌 Qing-Chang Lu June 20, 2010 Outline 1. 介绍 Introduction 2. 海平面上升影响分析 Sea Level Rise Impact Analysis 3. 交通网络脆弱性分析 Transportation Network Vulnerability Analysis 4. 结果 Results 1. Introduction • Human activities have contributed to climate changes and that climate change will have important impacts on the environment and quality of life (IPCC, 2007) • Sea level will continue to rise in the 21st century with an occurrence probability of more than 99 percent (TRB, 2008) 1. Introduction The impacts of climate change on transportation network and how to quantify these impacts so as to make a better decision. Transportation network vulnerability analysis measures the impact of disasters on transportation system and finds the most vulnerable areas as well as the most important links. 2. Sea Level Rise Impact Analysis • Study area: the south Miami area • Elevation data: Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) data from NOAA Better than 30 centimeters at the 95 percent confidence level • Transportation network: the Florida Statewide Model (FLSWM) of Florida Standard Urban and Transportation Model Structure (FSUTMS) • Target year: 2060 (Florida Transportation Plan) 2. Sea Level Rise Impact Analysis Table 1 Sea level rise scenarios used in the study Figure 1 Inundation map of 0.3 meter SLR Figure 2 Inundation map of 1.0 meter SLR 3. Transportation Network Vulnerability Analysis Vulnerability Probability Research Reliabili