大变形隧洞稳定性模糊概率分析.pdfVIP

39 2 Vol. 39 No.2 2010 3 Journal of China University of Mining Technology Mar. 2010 赵延喜, 徐卫亚 ( , 210098) : 为了分析大变形隧洞工程中存在的不确定性, 用模糊概率法研究高地应力 大变形隧洞 的稳定概率. 采用模糊随机方法, 推导出大变形隧洞稳定的模糊概率模型, 模型中将围岩容许变 形量作为随机变量, 并假设随机变量服从正态分布, 隶属函数取简化的线性分布. 结合乌鞘岭隧 洞F7 断层带软岩隧洞工程, 利用曲线回归和模糊概率对隧洞围岩稳定性进行计算分析.计算结 果表明, 开挖后第18 天, 左线隧洞, 边墙稳定概率为152% , 拱部稳定概率为991% , 倾向于失 稳状态; 右线隧洞, 边墙稳定概率为955% , 拱部稳定概率为100%, 隧洞比较稳定. 模糊概率法 考虑到工程中的随机性和模糊性, 较确定性方法更加合理, 有助于反映隧洞稳定性发展趋势. : 深埋隧洞; 高地应力; 软岩; 稳定性; 模糊概率 : O 211; T U 457 : A : 2010) Research on the Stability of Large Deformation Tunnel Using Fuzzy Probability Analysis ZHAO Yanxi, XU Weiya (Key Laboratory of M inistry of Education for Geomechanics and Embankment Engineering, Geot echnical Research Institute, H ohai University, Nanjing, Jiangsu 210098, China) Abstract: Fuzzy probability was used to analyze the stability of a tunnel in soft ground and un der high geostress. The tunnel was undergoing large deformation. The allowable deformation in the surrounding rock was treated as a random variable and its probability distribution was determined. Fuzzy sets and random theory were used to model large deformation and to evalu ate tunnel stability. Regression analysis and fuzzy probability were used to calculate the stabili ty in the rock surrounding the F7 fault zone in the Wuqiaoling tunnel. Eighteen days after ex cavation in the left line the steady probability of side wall is 15. 2%, arch is 99. 1% and the tunnel is considered unstable. Excavation in the right line gave corresponding probabilities of 99. 5% and 100% and the tunnel is considered stable. Fuzzyrandom modeling predicts the ac tual stability of large deforma