股票心理学（Stock psychology）.docVIP

股票心理学（Stock psychology） Common psychological errors in investment. The first myth: Overconfidence and controlled hallucination. A professional survey: 82% of the driving experience more than one year the driver thinks he is above the average level. Its obvious that most people overestimate their level. Betting before a coin is thrown is the rule of almost all casinos. For example, playing dice to guess size, casino bosses found that gamblers bet before dice, obviously larger than the dice after the bet is much larger. When an investor makes an investment decision, he thinks he has a big grasp of whats going on in the future and seems to be able to master the changes in the future. In fact, you dont have any control over whats going on in the future. Just because youre involved, you think you have control. This is an illusion of control caused by overconfidence. Overconfidence and illusion of control lead to at least three problems in actual investment: First of all, frequent transactions: we overestimate the accuracy of information and the ability to analyze information by ourselves, resulting in frequent transactions. It not only improves transaction costs, but also makes it easier for us to make wrong investment decisions. Inadequate diversification of investment: because overconfidence leads to concentrated investment and concentration of risk. Investment in a large number of equity and other equity products, completely lost the majority of asset allocation. Including people, last year the vast majority of assets in equity funds as an investment varieties, even if the latter does not consider how changes in the end market, from the portfolio, risk management and so on any one point of view, this approach is unreasonable. Selective filtering: the willingness to accept information that supports ones judgment, while filtering out information that does not support ones own judgment, resulting in more confidence in ones judgment. Every day there are long and short rac