销售促销效果评估教案.docVIP

销售促销效果评估： 一个Multinomial Logit模型的应用 王高( 清华大学经济管理学院 摘要： 作为一种短期的促销行为，销售促销被越来越多的厂家越来越频繁地采用，销售促销经费占整个营销经费的比重也越来越高。如何科学地制定促销策略，以便最大限度地提高销售促销投资的回报是企业决策者必须回答的一个问题。因此，对各种销售促销手段的效果进行定量评估就成了回答这一问题的关键。本文介绍了如何利用Multinomial Logit模型来评估各种销售促销手段对市场份额增长的影响，并以一个实际数据为例进行了实证分析。结果表明不同的促销手段对市场份额增长的影响是不同的，效果最好的销售促销手段并不是采用最频繁的。这说明所研究的品牌并没有采用最佳的销售促销策略，结果白白损失了一些可能得到的市场份额。本文所介绍的方法对数据要求比较简单，可以有效地对销售促销的效果进行评估，并能够帮助决策者制定最优化的销售促销策略。 关键词：销售促销、销售促销效果评估、市场份额、Multinomial Logit模型。 Abstract: As one of the short-term promotional activities, sales promotion has been adopted by more and more manufacturers more and more frequently, and the sales promotion budget accounts for higher and higher percentage in the total marketing budget as well. How to make sales promotion policy scientifically so as to maximize the return on the investments of sales promotion becomes a question that business managers have to answer. Hence, to answer this question it is essential to quantitatively evaluate the effects of various means of sales promotion. This article introduces how to apply the Multinomial Logit model to evaluate the effects of various means of sales promotion on the increase of market share, and empirically applies the model to a real data. The results show that the effects of different means of sales promotion on the increase of market share are different, and the most effective means of sale promotion has not been adopted most often. This means that the studied brand has not implemented the optimal sales promotion policy, and as a result has lost some market share that it otherwise could have gained. The method introduced in this paper requires simple data, but can effectively evaluate the effectiveness of sales promotion, and can help decision makers make optimal sales promotion policies as well. Key Words: sales promotion, evaluation of the effectiveness of sales promotion, market share, Multinomial Logit model. 1．引言 作为一种短期的促销策略，销售促销（sales promotion）在快速移动消费品和耐用消费品的销售过程中变得越来越流行，越来越重要。在西方发达国家销售促销经费在全部