泛长三角城市发展效率时空格局演化及驱动机制_张荣天.pdfVIP

第34卷第5期 经 济 地 理 Vol.34，No.5 2014年5月 ECONOMICGEOGRAPHY May，2014 泛长三角城市发展效率时空格局演化与驱动机制 张荣天，焦华富 （安徽师范大学 国土资源与旅游学院，中国安徽 芜湖 241003） 摘 要：以泛长三角为研究区，采用修正的DEA模型测度2000—2012年城市发展效率；综合利用地统计分析、R/S分 析、多元回归分析模型等方法分析了转型期泛长三角城市发展效率时空格局演化及驱动机制。结果表明：总体上城 市发展效率呈现出提升的态势，且城市集约化发展取得一定进步；城市发展效率空间格局演化存在空间集聚，各效 率在空间上均表现显著的空间自相关特征；综合效率和规模效率形成了较为相似的集聚演化格局；未来城市发展各 项效率将会表现不断增长趋势；人口城市化、农业现代化、工业化、第三产业发展及市场因素等驱动力共同作用于泛 长三角城市发展效率时空格局演化。 关键词：城市发展效率；时空格局演化；驱动机制；泛长三角 中图分类号：F 127 文献标志码：A 文章编号：1000-8462（2014）05-0048-07 Space-TimePatternEvolutionandItsDrivingMechanismofUrbanDevelopment EfficiencyinPan-YangtzeRiverDelta ZHANG Rong - tian ，JIAO Hua - fu （TheCollegeofTerritorialResourcesandTourism，AnhuiNormalUniversity，Wuhu 241003，Anhui，China） Abstract: This paper taked Pan- Yangtze River Delta as the research object, firstly used the modified DEA model to measure urban development efficiency from 2000 to 2012, then space-time evolution pattern and driving mechanism of urban development efficiency has carried on the preliminary discussion by using ESDA statistical analysis, R/S analysis method and multiple regression analysis model. The results showed that: overall urban development efficiency showed a tendency of ascension, and unban intensive development made a certain progress; formation and evolution of the spatial pattern of urban development efficiency had the spatial connected, overall efficiency, technical efficiency, scale efficiency had significant spatial autocorrelation characteristics, and overall efficiency and scale efficiency have formed a similar changing pattern; urban developme