人民币迷局与楼市拐点（The puzzle and the RMB market inflection point）.docVIP

人民币迷局与楼市拐点（The puzzle and the RMB market inflection point） The puzzle and the RMB market inflection point House prices are still affecting people. Recently, some of Hangzhou property prices suddenly and a bank moratorium on the development loan information perturbation market, the size of the broker also held a conference call on the weekend, the recent decline in the renminbi, but also for the property market level increase variables. In fact, compared to property buyers hit the sales offices, whether the real estate smashed the plate, Chinas economy is more worth thinking about. From the data point of view, prices, especially in the first tier cities are still unabated momentum. According to China Statistics Bureau released 2014 January 70 large and medium-sized cities housing sales price data, the chain is only 6 cities down, down 1 cities. Year-on-year price changes, Shanghai led by 20.9%. From the trend, housing prices began to decline slightly, in January, 70 large and medium-sized cities, new commercial housing prices rose by an average of 0.49% QoQ, compared with 0.51% in December last year. Predicting a real estate inflection point is a thankless job, but this change may be coming. But the more serious problem is that the turning point may not only overlap with the long-term population cycle and the short-term fluctuation cycle, but also become entangled with the macroeconomic shift. How does the trend of house prices go? Now can be regarded as a crossroads of Chinas real estate, reflecting the long-term factors, the medium-term factors, short-term factors cycle, turning and overlap. In the long run, in recent years, the new labor force has begun to decrease, most forecasts that Chinas population cycle peaked around 2015, which means that the corresponding real estate construction cycle will shift. The rise of Chinas property in the last 20 years has been due to the placement and improvement of housing needs by a rapidly growing generation of young people,