吉林三化统筹影响因素逻辑分析与统计检验-吉林农业大学学报.pdfVIP

吉林农业大学学报 2012 ，05 Journal of Jilin Agricultural University E-mail:jlndxb@ 吉林省“三化”统筹影响因素逻辑分析与统计检验* 1，2 1 姜会明 ，王振华 1.吉林农业大学经济管理学院, 长春 130118 ；2.吉林农业大学中国粮食主产区农村经济研究中心，长春 130118 摘 要：工业化、城镇化和农业现代化的“三化”统筹，是城乡区域的统筹，亦是工农产业的协调，其影响因素主要 包括：对工业和农业的财政扶持及金融扶持力度，教育制度、社会保障制度和就业制度，文化体育事业及投资所有 制结构，也包括农业的行业特性及农村的区域属性等因素。运用吉林省 1978—2009 年统计数据，通过计量模型对影 响“三化” 的因素进行统计检验，结果表明：投资中的城乡比例和银行贷款中的工农比例对“三化”统筹发展有显著的 负影响，据此提出加大对农村金融的扶持力度、引导更多信贷资金投向“三农” 、注重对农村教育资源的投入的政策 建议。 关键词：工业化；城镇化；农业现代化；区域统筹；产业统筹；吉林省 中图分类号：F303.3 文献标识码：A 文章编号：1000-5684(2012) 网络出版地址： /kcms/detail/22.1100.S1016.002.html Logical Analysis and Statistical Test on Influencing Factors of Coordination of Agricultural Modernization, Urbanization and Industrialization in Jilin Province JIANG Hui-ming1，2 , WANG Zhen-hua1 1. College of Economics and Management, Jilin Agricultural University, Changchun 130118, China ；2. Rural Economy Research Center of China Major Grain Producing Areas, Jilin Agricultural University, Changchun 130118,China Abstract: Coordination of industrialization, urbanization and agricultural modernization is not only the regional coordination of urban and rural areas, but also the industrial coordination of agriculture and industry. The influencing factors of it are investment of financial support and financial support to the industry and agriculture, system of education, social security system, employment system, cultural and sports undertakings, investment ownership structure, characteristics of agriculture industry, and area properties of rural. The empirical analysis was made based on the data of 1978 to 2009 in Jilin province. The results indicated that the proportion of investment in urban and rural areas and ba