试探中国在当代世界经济格局中的地位与面临的问题-Universityof.docVIP

A Rising Global Economic Power-China: Explanations and Strategic Implications LIN Jue, PhD Visiting Fellow Centre for the Study of Globalisation Regionalisation The University of Warwick (Professor of International Economics Shanghai University of Finance and Economics) E-mail: linjue2001@ Hong Liu, PhD Director, China Business Centre Manchester Business School E-mail: Hong.liu@mbs.ac.uk September, 2005 Introduction The global economic structure is changing from the USA based global economic center to the one with the dominance from the USA, Europe, and Asia. Particularly an increasing attention has been paid to China’s rapid economic development. Some have claimed that the 21st century would be a “China Century”, and meanwhile, some Western countries see a rising economically powerful China as a threat, and believe that China’s production and consumption would cause a global shortage of energy, food and resources, price increase, job losses in other countries, and environmental deterioration etc. Thus, some important issues should be addressed: 1. Is China really on the rise to become a global economic power or what is the role of China in the world economy? 2. Is China an economically responsible country? 3. Would China become a threat or burden or a contribution to the global economy? This paper is intended to examine these issues. Different Views on China’s Rising in the Literature Much has been discussed about the impact of China’s development on the global economy in the literature, and different views can be found. It has been claimed that China is no longer a developing country, but a rising one with superpower. China is re-writing the history of the world economy. If the last century were seen as belonging to the USA, the next century would be to China.① Chinese industrial revolution has disrupted the global economic order. It will not only impact on Western economies, but also politics. “Once China sneezes, the whole word will catch cold.”② China may b