中国不同气候区基于火险气象指数的火险概率模型_英文_李晓炜.pdfVIP

June, 2012 Journal of Resources and Ecology Vol.3 No.2 J. Resour. Ecol. 2012 3 (2) 105-117 Article DOI:10.5814/j.issn.1674-764x.2012.02.002 Probability Models of Fire Risk Based on Forest Fire Indices in Contrasting Climates over China 1,2 3 4 5 1,2 6 1 LI Xiaowei , FU Guobin , Melanie J. B. ZEPPEL , YU Xiubo , ZHAO Gang , Derek EAMUS and YU Qiang * 1 Key Laboratory of Water Cycle Related Land Surface Processes, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101, China; 2 Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China; 3 CSIRO Land and Water, Private Bag 5, Wembley, WA 6913, Australia; 4 Department of Biological Sciences, Macquarie University, NSW 2109, Australia; 5 Key Laboratory of Ecosystem Network Observation and Modeling, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101, China; 6 Plant Functional Biology Climate Change Cluster, School of the Environment, University of Technology, Sydney, NSW 2007, Australia Abstract: Fire weather indices have been widely applied to predict fire risk in many regions of the world. The objectives of this study were to establish fire risk probability models based on fire indices over different climatic regions in China. We linked the indices adopted in Canadian, US, and Australia with location, time, altitude, vegetation and fire characteristics during 1998-2007 in four regions using semi- parametric logistic (SPL) regression models. Different combinations of fire risk indices were selected as