德意志银行-中国-银行业-中国消费者债务暴涨-20170817-China banks China’s consumer debt boom-20170817-Deutsche Bank.pdfVIP

China banks Deutsche Bank Markets Research Asia Industry Date China China banks 17 August 2017 Banking / Finance Banks Industry Update Chinas consumer debt boom Stephen Andrews, CFA China short-term consumer debt takes off Over the past 2 years mortgage growth in China has surged supporting a buoyant Research Analyst housing market helping partially clear the significant property oversupply issue +8522203 6191 many 2nd and 3rd tier cities faced. In the past 3-4 months another phenomenon has started to emerge which is equally interesting: Short-term consumer debt in Hans Fan, CFA China has started to surge. During Q2 17 household debt with a duration of less Research Analyst than one year accelerated is now growing +34-35% yoy (faster than mortgage +852-2203 6353 growth) and currently makes up close to 9-10% of all net new credit provision within China (a level we have not seen before). This, if it persists, could represent Jacky Zuo another interesting and important investment theme with implications beyond Research Analyst simply the bank sector. It is not yet clear where exactly this short-term credit is +852-2203 6255 being deployed in the economy but we note that historically 70-80% of this debt has been credit card related. Consumer credit in China (mortgages other types) Edward Du is now growing at a pace that has rarely been seen in other economies and has the Research Associat