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右肿右赜肿州
Conversion Factors, Delivery Option and Hedge EÆciency of
a Multi-Issuer Bond Future
Wolfgang B uhler, Klaus Dullmann
Octob er 2001
Abstract
This pap er makes three contributions to the literature on b ond futures contracts:
Firstly, we analyse the value of the delivery option of a multi-issuer contract. This
contract diers from traditional contracts like the T-Bond or the Bund Future in that
b onds of dierent issuers can b e delivered by the seller of the future. The future and
its delivery option are valued using a two-factor aÆne mo del, which b elongs to the
intensity-based class of default-risk mo dels develop ed by DuÆe and Singleton (1999).
Secondly, we prop ose three conversion-factor systems to reduce the danger of a
short squeeze in the sp ot market. The conversion factors simultaneously account for
dierences in coup on, time to maturity, and the credit risk of deliverable b onds.
Thirdly, in the empirical part of the pap er we analyse the impact of these
conversion-factor systems on the hedge eÆciency of the corresp onding futures
contracts. Based on the value of the delivery option and the results for the
hedge eÆciency, an appropriate conversion-factor system is recommended, having a
prosp ective Europ ean sovereign b ond future in mind.
Keywords: multi-issuer future, delivery option, conversion factors, credit spreads, aÆne
mo del
JEL classication: G13, G15
Address: Prof. Dr. Wolfgang Buhler: Chair of Finance, University of Mannheim, D-68131 Ma
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