The Application of Multiplicative Holt—Winters Model in Prediction of Railway Passenger Flowa.doc

The Application of Multiplicative Holt—Winters Model in Prediction of Railway Passenger Flowa 　　Abstract. The railway passenger volume has an obvious seasonal behavior， and has volatility and instability. The features of it brings a lot of difficulties to forecast the volume in short-term. To investigate the trends and seasonal variations of railway passenger flow， we discuss multiplicative Holt-Winters model as a method. This paper states the basic theory and algorithm of the model， and provides the experimental results by using the data of China railway passenger volume in 2006 to 2010. The result shows the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed approaches. Key words： Holt-Winter Model， Railway， Passenger Volume， Prediction. 1. Introduction Prediction of railway passenger volume is an important foundation for the work of the railway transport organization sector， the accuracy of its results has a direct impact on the decisions and arrangements of the relevant sector. Railway passenger volume influence by time， and has certain regularity and periodicity. In order to predict the railway passenger volume accurately， we must consider the impact of various factors in the process of establishing appropriate model. At present， widely used methods of establishing prediction model include time series method， grey system method， neural network method， and so on. Huijing Wang applied gray forecast theory to develop passenger traffic volume forecast program， and made experiment to prove the availability of gray forecast theory.[1] Dabin Zhang and Hou Zhu presented a gray forecast model based on genetic algorithm to modify factors， and made study on the efficiency of the model.[2] These methods can get accurate results while the time series is smooth and steady or has a notable change in trend， and often be used in long-term predictions. Therefore， these methods are used to long-term forecast in railway passenger volume. In recent years， railways pas