含风电场的大电网系统运行风险评价-电气技术.pdfVIP

含风电场的大电网系统运行风险评估 1 1 1 2 3 高忠旭 李仕杰 李春鹏 范骏杰 杨 漾 （1. 国网浙江省海宁市供电公司，浙江 海宁 314400 ； 2. 国网浙江省嘉兴市供电公司，浙江 嘉兴 314000 ； 3. 国网浙江省桐乡市供电公司，浙江 桐乡 314500 ） 摘要 本文深入探究了影响大电网安全运行的风险源，包括风电场的集电线路故障、无功补 偿设备故障等风险因素，对此建立了适合运行风险评估的可靠性模型。基于非序贯蒙特卡罗仿真， 采用等分散抽样法选择系统状态。建立了含风电场的大电网系统运行风险评估指标体系，开发了 评估流程。应用本文所提方法对IEEE-RTS79 算例的计算表明，该方法可合理评估风电接入后系统 短期的运行风险，并为调度部门调整发电出力计划、定位电网薄弱环节和确定风电吸纳能力提供 参考依据。 关键词：风电场；运行风险评估；指标体系；风险因素 Operational Risk Assessment on Bulk System Associated with Large-scale Wind Farms Gao Zhongxu1 Li Shijie1 Li Chunpeng1 Fan Junjie2 Yang Yang3 (1. State Grid Haining Power Supply Company City, Haining, Zhejiang 314400; 2. State Grid Jiaxing State Grid Power Supply Company City, Jiaxing, Zhejiang 314000; 3. State Grid Tongxiang State Grid Power Supply Company City, Jiaxing, Zhejiang 314500) Abstract Including the wind farm collector line failure, reactive power compensation equipment failures and other risk factors, develop the sources of risk which impact the safe operation of bulk system deeply, then establish the reliability model of these risk factors suited for operation risk assessment. Based on non-sequential Monte Carlo simulation, using the average and scattered sampling method for state selection. Establish the operational risk assessment indices of bulk system with large scale wind farm integrated, and develop the process of operational risk assessment. The numerical tests of IEEE-RTS79 network are proposed, which prove the proposed algorithm could be reference for adjusting power output plan, positioning grid weaknesses and determining the absorptive capa