污染排放对经济发展的负面影响研究-中国环境管理.pdfVIP

丨2015年第6期 污染排放对经济发展的负面影响研究 王 依 （环境保护部环境规划院，北京 100012） 摘 要 以 1998—2009 年各地区的数据为样本，利用联立方程模型检验污染排放对经济发展的负面影响，以及 宏观经济结构对这种影响的调节作用。研究发现，经济发展与污染排放之间存在相互影响的关系，经济 结构与污染排放之间也存在相互影响的关系。当期经济发展水平的提高必然会引起污染排放的增加，但 当期污染排放的增加会对今后经济发展产生滞后的负面效应。投资和出口对污染排放的负面影响存在调 节作用，即投资比重越高，出口比重越低，当期经济增长引起的污染排放越少，污染排放的负面影响也 越小。不过，消费比重对污染排放负面影响不存在调节作用。 关键词 污染排放；经济发展；经济结构 中图分类号：X22 文献标识码：A 文章编号：1674-6252(2015)06-0090-06 Research on the Negative Impacts of Pollution Emission on Economic Development Wang Yi （Chinese Academy for Environmental Planning, Beijing 100012） Abstract: Based on the sample of data in different regions from 1998 to 2009, the negative impacts of pollution emission on economic development and the adjustment of the macro economic structure to the economic development were examined by using simultaneous equations model in this paper. It was founded that economic development and pollution emission infl uenced each other, economic structure and pollution emission also infl uenced each other. The improvement of current economic development level will inevitably lead to the increase of pollution emission. However, the negative effect of current pollution emission increasement on the economic development is lagged. Investment and exports can moderate the negative impacts of pollution emission, that is, the higher the proportion of the investment, the lower the proportion of exports, the less of the pollution emission caused by the current economic development, so the less negative impacts of pollution emission. However, the consumption proportion does not have a moderate effect on the negative impacts of pollution emission. Keywords: pollution emission; economic development