泰国投资风险分析.ppt

Emerging market Thailand Introduction history Beatiful Scenery Statistics Statistics Statistics The state of the economy The state of the economy The state of the economy Thailand ’international tarde Country risk of Thailand Political risk Political risk Political risk Economic risk Economic risk Financial risk Financial risk Country Risk Potentiality of Thailand Business environment Comparied with other countries The End A robust financial situation The fiscal deficit will likely widen in 2009 as a result of the implementation of fiscal stimulus policy intended to revitalize the economy. However, public debt is expected to remain at sustainable level. The current account surplus should moreover increase again in 2009 amid decreasing raw material prices. Besides, despite political instability, FDI inflows will remain strong. And the volatility of portfolio investment flows is not expected to last in 2009. In this context, foreign exchange reserves will likely increase in 2009 and reach more than 8 months of imports, thereby sheltering Thailand from a foreign currency liquidity crisis. Low risk 35-40 Very low risk 40 and up Moderate risk 30-35 High risk 25-30 Very High risk 0-25 CPFER(THAILAND)=0.5(PR+FR+ER) PR:Political Risk FR:Financial Risk ER:Economic Risk Thailand 37 43 30.5 CPFER=0.5（37+43+30.5）=65.25 * * The national flag of Thailand A unified Thai kingdom was established in the mid-14th century. Known as Siam until 1939, Thailand is the only Southeast Asian country never to have been taken over by a European power. A bloodless revolution in 1932 led to a constitutional monarchy. In alliance with Japan during World War II, Thailand became a US treaty ally following the conflict. A military coup in September 2006 ousted then Prime Minister THAKSIN Chinnawat. The interim government held elections in December 2007 that saw the former pro-THAKSIN Pe