基于BP_神经网络模型的延吉市GDP预测.pdfVIP

Business and Globalization 商业全球化, 2015, 3, 65-73 Published Online July 2015 in Hans. /journal/bglo /10.12677/bglo.2015.33008 The Forecast of Yanji GDP Based on BP_Neural Network Model Wenyuan Sun, Zhe Yin, Jinghu Shen* Mathematics Department, Yanbian University, Yanji Jilin * Email: yinzhe@ th th th Received: Jun. 24 , 2015; accepted: Jul. 6 , 2015; published: Jul. 13 , 2015 Copyright © 2015 by authors and Hans Publishers Inc. This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution International License (CC BY). /licenses/by/4.0/ Abstract Economic prediction problem is a complex system prediction problem of typical multi-index small sample. In this paper, by using SAS software with stepwise regression analysis method to do the preprocessing of the raw data, the data are easier to analyze. Using the methods of simulation fit- ting, neural network prediction and so on based on the statistical data of Yanji’s GDP from 2001 to 2009 after pretreatment, relevant factors which significantly affect economic development situa- tion of Yanji city are worked out. Among them, X1 is the total cost of the first industry; X4 is the number of tourists in Yanji city; X5 is the capital introduced and X6 is the rate of population growth. Next we put the independence as the target of principal component analysis and predict Yanji city’s economic form in the future, having a certain reference value to better grasp Yanji city’s economic development. Keywords GDP, Stepwise Regression Analysis, Principal Component Analysis, Neural Network Model 基于BP_神经网络模型的延吉市GDP预测 孙文渊，尹 哲，沈京虎* 延边大学数学系，吉林 延吉 * Email: yinzhe@ 收稿日期：2015年6月24 日