医科高等数学第一章.ppt

生物医学工程学院数学物理系欢迎各位同学tan-xiaodan@Tel:020例 患者，男，50岁 劳累后出现心前区疼痛， 疼痛主要位于胸骨上段，向左上肢放射， 疼痛时呈绞榨样或紧缩样剧痛，持续3 min~5 min后缓解。 入院诊断为心绞痛急性发作 给予硝酸甘油治疗，每次0.5 mg，发作时舌下含服。 问硝酸甘油治疗心绞痛为何要舌下含服？口服是否也能取得较好疗效？ 药物动力学模型 生物种群增殖 生物种群增殖(cont’d) 肿瘤生长 肿瘤的生长速率由当前肿瘤的体积来决定 肿瘤化疗 肿瘤化疗(cont’d) Bayesian approach to cancer-trend analysis using age-stratified Poisson regression models. Stat Med. 2010 Sep 14. Ghosh P, Ghosh K, Tiwari RC. Department of Quantitative Methods and Information Systems, Indian Institute of Management, Bannerghatta Road, Bangalore 560076, India. Abstract Annual Percentage Change (APC) summarizes trends in age-adjusted cancer rates over short time-intervals. This measure implicitly assumes linearity of the log-rates over the intervals in question, which may not be valid, especially for relatively longer time-intervals. An alternative is the Average Annual Percentage Change (AAPC), which computes a weighted average of APC values over intervals where log-rates are piece-wise linear.In this article, we propose a Bayesian approach to calculating APC and AAPC values from age-adjusted cancer rate data. The procedure involves modeling the corresponding counts using age-specific Poisson regression models with a log-link function that contains unknown joinpoints. The slope-changes at the joinpoints are assumed to have a mixture distribution with point mass at zero and the joinpoints are assumed to be uniformly distributed subject to order-restrictions. Additionally, the age-specific intercept parameters are modeled nonparametrically using a Dirichlet process prior. The proposed method can be used to construct Bayesian credible intervals for AAPC using age-adjusted mortality rates. This provides a significant improvement over the currently available frequentist method, where variance calculations are done conditional on the joinpoint locations.Simulation studies are used to demonstrate the success of the method in capturing trend-changes. Finally, the proposed method is il